By Alex Schultz

When I first heard that Saudi Arabia might be interested in purchasing the only self-portrait of Benvenuto Cellini for €107 million, I was immediately intrigued by the sum. As a financial analyst with a keen interest in numbers, particularly in pricing, I decided to examine all available publications to create a price timeline for this portrait.

Multi-million-dollar art sales are nothing new; however, readers seldom learn the story behind the price tag. Too often, we are simply presented with the fact but not the data. I hope readers will find my brief research into this artwork useful and request similar analyses for other known works of art that are being sold or were sold in the past. Please share your wishes and requests in the comments section below.

News about the discovery of Cellini’s self-portrait first appeared in 2005 in The Telegraph, one of the UK’s most well-known newspapers. A story titled “Antique Sale Painting Unveiled as £60m Cellini Self-Portrait” was published by Colin Randall in Paris on September 14. Throughout that month, the USD/GBP exchange rate fluctuated from 1.89 to 1.71, with an average rate of 1.80 dollars per pound. This puts the initial insurance valuation of this self-portrait at $108 million.

Soon after, more reports about this artwork were published globally. Pravda published an article titled “Self-Portrait of Benvenuto Cellini Estimated at 110 Million Dollars,” which is well within the margins of the initial valuation.

Lenta released a story where the value of Cellini’s portrait was stated as 90 million euros. Here’s a quote: “The owner of the self-portrait Cellini, apparently, does not intend to part with it: he has just insured the artwork for almost 90 million euros.” With the average exchange rate of 1.282 dollars per euro for that period, the value of this portrait grew to $115,380,000.

On July 12, 2018, the latest valuation report was published in a press release by the Tamoikin Art Fund, titled “Discovered Cellini’s Self-Portrait Officially Priced at €107 Million.” With an average USD/EUR exchange rate of 1.167 dollars per euro, the current value of Cellini’s self-portrait is $124,869,000.

To summarize, from September 2005 (when it was valued at $108 million) to July 2018 (when it was valued at $124.9 million), this artwork added $16.9 million to its current market value, averaging $1.3 million per year. However, if we account for the inflation of the US dollar over the past 13 years (approximately 29%), the Tamoikin Art Fund’s 2018 valuation signifies a value decrease, as $108 million in 2005 is equivalent to approximately $139 million in 2018.

Does this mean that the latest valuation of 107 million euros ($124.9 million) is a fair asking price for this self-portrait? Is it too low? Are the Saudis getting a bargain? I don’t know. That is for each of you to determine for yourself. I’ve provided my analysis; you have the numbers; the market will decide.

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